MNI China Daily Summary: Monday, November 25

MNI: China CFETS Yuan Index Up 0.01% In Week of Nov 22

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY76.7 Bln via OMO Monday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1918 Mon; -1.35% Y/Y

CHINA PRESS: Yuan To Reach 17% Of Global Payments By 2035

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: Gilt Syndi; IT, DE Due on Tuesday

MNI: GERMANY NOV IFO BUSINESS CLIMATE INDEX 85.7

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: Germany, France Auction on Monday

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

MNI EXCLUSIVE: German Turmoil Dashes EU's Joint-Funding Hopes -Officials

FED: Powell's Time Looks Up, Replacement Could Be Less Willing To Cut Rates?

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OUTLOOK
  • The focus today is squarely on the US, with little of note due for release in Europe this morning other than Italian and Eurozone unemployment.
  • The main focus will of course be the FOMC meeting (with a decision due at 19:00BST / 20:00CET). A 25bp hike in May could mark the end of the Fed’s hiking cycle. With rates above 5%, and sticky inflation fears offset by the tightening effect of banking sector woes, the FOMC is likely to move to a meeting-by-meeting policy beyond May, while retaining a bias toward further policy firming. But with widespread expectations that the Fed will change its forward rate guidance to hint at an end to the hiking cycle, or even open the door to cuts, there is a hawkish risk that guidance is left unchanged. Markets price 22bp for today's meeting before that hike is almost fully reversed by the September meeting. For the full MNI Fed Preview click here.
  • Elsewhere today on the data front from the US we have ADP employment at 13:15BST, the final S&P Global US PMI before the main data release of the day, ISM services. For the latter, the prices paid and employment subcomponents will be key.
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