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What to Watch: MFG/Services PMIs, Prelim Census of Employ/Wages (QCEW)

US TSYS
  • Focus on S&P MFG and Services PMIs at 0945ET after weaker than expected European Services PMI spurred a rebound in global rates ahead - many leaning short in anticipation of hawkish messaging from CBs at Jackson Hole eco-summit that starts Thu' evening.
  • Treasury futures firmer, back to early Monday levels: TYU3 +15.5 at 109-17.5, yield back down to 4.2509% vs. 4.3618% late Monday. Heavier volumes as Sep/Dec Treasury futures rolls gather momentum.
  • Next up at 1000ET: New Home Sales and the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) for 1Q23. It will provide the preliminary annual benchmark estimate for the establishment survey data, i.e. including the level of payrolls, over the twelve months up to March 2023.
  • The magnitude is important with some analysts expecting a circa 500k drop in the level of payrolls employment, but the exact magnitude plus timing of when these revisions land will only be known with the finalized benchmark revision published Feb 2024.
  • Treasury auctions: $24B 2Y FRN R/O (91282CHS3) and $50B 17W Bills at 1130ET followed this afternoon by $16B 20Y Bond sale (912810TU2) at 1300ET.
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