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Policy
Policy
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Global Macro
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
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Wide Range For Terminal Rate Expectations In Latest Citi Survey
- Inflation expectations in the latest Citi survey remained generally stable, with 2024 year-end CPI expected at 5.54%, 13bps higher than in the previous survey, and at 3.74% 2025, the expectation increased by 4bps to 3.74%. April’s Citi survey was released on Monday and is used as one of the central bank’s indicators for economic expectations.
- Scotiabank pointed out that the terminal rate is the point under debate within the survey, highlighting that for December 2024, the expectation is at 8.25% with a range between 7.50%–9.0%. For Dec-2025, it is at 5.50% with a range between 4.25% and 6.50%.
- Yesterday, we noted that Scotiabank are siding with market pricing in forecasting a 50bp rate cut to 11.75% at BanRep’s April meeting, probably with a split vote. They expect the monetary policy rate to close at 8.25% in Dec-2024 and 5.50% in Dec-2025.
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.