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Wide Range For Terminal Rate Expectations In Latest Citi Survey

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  • Inflation expectations in the latest Citi survey remained generally stable, with 2024 year-end CPI expected at 5.54%, 13bps higher than in the previous survey, and at 3.74% 2025, the expectation increased by 4bps to 3.74%. April’s Citi survey was released on Monday and is used as one of the central bank’s indicators for economic expectations.
  • Scotiabank pointed out that the terminal rate is the point under debate within the survey, highlighting that for December 2024, the expectation is at 8.25% with a range between 7.50%–9.0%. For Dec-2025, it is at 5.50% with a range between 4.25% and 6.50%.
  • Yesterday, we noted that Scotiabank are siding with market pricing in forecasting a 50bp rate cut to 11.75% at BanRep’s April meeting, probably with a split vote. They expect the monetary policy rate to close at 8.25% in Dec-2024 and 5.50% in Dec-2025.
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  • Inflation expectations in the latest Citi survey remained generally stable, with 2024 year-end CPI expected at 5.54%, 13bps higher than in the previous survey, and at 3.74% 2025, the expectation increased by 4bps to 3.74%. April’s Citi survey was released on Monday and is used as one of the central bank’s indicators for economic expectations.
  • Scotiabank pointed out that the terminal rate is the point under debate within the survey, highlighting that for December 2024, the expectation is at 8.25% with a range between 7.50%–9.0%. For Dec-2025, it is at 5.50% with a range between 4.25% and 6.50%.
  • Yesterday, we noted that Scotiabank are siding with market pricing in forecasting a 50bp rate cut to 11.75% at BanRep’s April meeting, probably with a split vote. They expect the monetary policy rate to close at 8.25% in Dec-2024 and 5.50% in Dec-2025.