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Winter TTF Premium Rises as Front Month Corrects Lower

NATURAL GAS

The TTF winter premium is regaining some ground today as the front month sees a correction back to 50€/MWh after surging up to 56.1€/MWh last week amid several European supply risks.

  • The lack of cold weather in the current two week forecast has helped ease some of the early winter season supply concern as storage levels approach 98% full. Near term supplies remain relatively unchanged amid ongoing risks from Middle East tensions, Australia LNG strikes, and the Baltic pipeline leak last week.
  • The Q1 2024 -Nov 2023 spread has bounced back up to around 5.25€/MWh from the lowest since June at 3.14€/MWh at the end of last week supported by risks from a cold winter, greater demand in mainland China and unplanned supply outages.
  • The winter 24 contract premium over the current winter is also edging higher with the Q1 2025 -Q1 2024 spread today up to 1.335€/MWh from around 0.7€/MWh on 13 Oct.
  • The TTF front month 30 day historical has increase back to 112.1% after dipping to 90.6% earlier in October.
    • TTF NOV 23 down -7.5% at 49.95€/MWh
    • TTF Q1 24 down -4.5% at 55€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 24 down -4% at 53.25€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 down -3.1% at 56.2€/MWh

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