Wisconsin Poll: More Warning Signs For Biden In Key Swing State

A new AARP poll in Wisconsin has found former President Donald Trump leading President Biden - 50% to 45% - in a head-to-head match-up in the state. With third-party candidates on the ballot, Trump's lead extends to six percentage points, although it should be noted independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has yet to secure ballot access in the state.

• The same poll shows Democratic Senate candidate Senator Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) leading Republican Eric Hovde 50%-45% - a significant lead considering the rarity of split-ticket voting in modern US politics but reflective of Biden's comparative underperformance across many swing state ballots.
• The poll is a major setback as Biden seeks to resurrect his campaign following his weak debate performance. Of the seven swing states, Biden has consistently polled strongest in Wisconsin. Should the survey be supported by further polling, it would bolster assertions that Biden is losing significant ground to Trump across all key states ahead of the November presidential election.
• The New York Times polling average tracker shows that Trump currently leads in all swing states, with a two-point lead in Wisconsin.
• Jonathan Ellis at NYT noted today: "Donald J. Trump’s lead over President Biden in national polls has widened since their debate in late June. Before the debate, Trump’s lead in our national polling average was one percentage point; now, with the latest New York Times/Siena College poll included in the average, it’s about two and a half points."