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Won Lagging Robust Equity Inflows

KRW
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1 month USD/KRW tracked familiar ranges late last week, with a 1227/1235 range for Friday's session. We ended NY trading close to 1229. Note onshore spot ended Friday's onshore session at 1231.30.

  • The tone from equities was more mixed, although trends remained positive. The SOX down on Friday, while the MSCI IT rose. Both indices recorded strong weekly gains (SOX +5.39%, MSCI IT +4.22%). To recap, the Kospi rose 0.88% on Friday, leaving it at +4% for the week and the fourth straight week of gains.
  • This is propelling firmer net equity inflows, although the won is lagging these moves, see the chart below. The past month has seen over $5bn of net equity inflows, with nearly $3bn coming in the past 5 trading sessions. The rate of won gains has slowed over this period though.
  • One factor may be that the won ran ahead of the equity story through December, so has entered more of a consolidation phase in recent weeks. last week was also the LNY period, which may have impacted liquidity.
  • On the data front, Dec retail sales are due between now and the end of the month, while IP figures print tomorrow.
  • Elsewhere Japan is reportedly considering putting South Korea back on its trusted export list in a sign of improving relations. South Korea was removed from this list back in 2019.

Fig 1: South Korea Net Equity Flows KRW/USD 1 Month Change

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1 month USD/KRW tracked familiar ranges late last week, with a 1227/1235 range for Friday's session. We ended NY trading close to 1229. Note onshore spot ended Friday's onshore session at 1231.30.

  • The tone from equities was more mixed, although trends remained positive. The SOX down on Friday, while the MSCI IT rose. Both indices recorded strong weekly gains (SOX +5.39%, MSCI IT +4.22%). To recap, the Kospi rose 0.88% on Friday, leaving it at +4% for the week and the fourth straight week of gains.
  • This is propelling firmer net equity inflows, although the won is lagging these moves, see the chart below. The past month has seen over $5bn of net equity inflows, with nearly $3bn coming in the past 5 trading sessions. The rate of won gains has slowed over this period though.
  • One factor may be that the won ran ahead of the equity story through December, so has entered more of a consolidation phase in recent weeks. last week was also the LNY period, which may have impacted liquidity.
  • On the data front, Dec retail sales are due between now and the end of the month, while IP figures print tomorrow.
  • Elsewhere Japan is reportedly considering putting South Korea back on its trusted export list in a sign of improving relations. South Korea was removed from this list back in 2019.

Fig 1: South Korea Net Equity Flows KRW/USD 1 Month Change

Keep reading...Show less