AMERICAS OIL: WTI Crude markets reversed earlier gains on signs of progress

March 10 - Americas End-of-Day Oil Summary: WTI Crude markets reversed earlier gains on signs of progress towards a Ukraine peace agreement. Weak economic data out of China, rising OPEC+ output and demand uncertainty from US tariffs are also weighing on crude.

• Stephen Witkoff, US President Donald Trump Middle East Envoy has told Fox News that he expects “substantial progress” at a meeting with Ukrainian officials in Jeddah tomorrow.
• China’s February’s CPI has slipped negative for the first time in 13 months, posing questions about the sustainability of China’s GDP 5% forecast.
• Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser forecasts oil demand to stand at 106.1m b/d in 2025, Bloomberg reports.
• According to Bloomberg Economics, the dip in Brent below $70/bbl last week was driven equally by growth fears related to US tariffs and the OPEC+ decision to boost supply in April.
• Crude held in floating storage stationary for at least seven days rose 4.9% w/w to 84.15m bbl as of March 7, according to Vortexa data cited by Bloomberg.
• Bloomberg cites a note by Sparta Commodities saying WTI arbitrage into Asia appears to have opened as loading premiums fell this month while Murban premiums moved up.
• A tanker and cargo vessel collided off England's northeastern coast, according to the Maritime and Coastguard Agency cited by BBC.
• Yemen's Houthis threatened to resume attacks on commercial shipping transiting the Red Sea if humanitarian aid is not allowed into Gaza, according to Argus.
• The discount on Heavy Western Canadian Select for April delivery to WTI narrowed to $11.80/bbl from $12.15 on Friday after the US energy secretary said agreement on tariffs could be possible.
• Chevron’s 290k b/d El Segundo refinery had an unplanned flare event Monday.
• Vitol CEO Russell Hardy said at CERA week that $60-$80/bbl oil is reasonable for the next few years. He expects oil to be trading in a lower range than the past 3-4 years but he doesn’t think the world is in for years of lower prices.
• The NOAA 6–14-day outlook is mostly bearish for heating demand through Mar 23 with below-normal conditions forecast in the West, but milder conditions expected in the eastern half of the continent. Elevated heating demand remains likely in PADDs 4 and 5, with below normal demand in most of PADDs 1-3.
• Cracks diverged, with gasoline cracks slightly higher following steep declines last week. Diesel cracks fell having reversed small earlier gains and with heating demand looking weak in the East through late March.
  • WTI Apr futures were down 1.5% at $66.04
  • WTI May futures were down 1.5% at $65.72
  • RBOB Apr futures were down 0.7% at $2.09
  • ULSD Apr futures were down 1.5% at $2.18
  • US gasoline crack up 0.4$/bbl at 21.85$/bbl
  • US ULSD crack down 0.3$/bbl at 25.58$/bbl