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Yen Falters Amid Risk Of Fed Turning More Aggressively Hawkish
The yen was the worst G10 performer Wednesday as expectation-beating CPI data released out of the U.S. fanned hawkish Fed expectations, raising the prospect of a wider yield divergence between the U.S. and Japan, where interest rates are set to remain rock-bottom for now. Spot USD/JPY lodged a new cyclical high at Y137.87 in the London afternoon, before a broader market reversal allowed it to trim some gains.
- U.S./Japan 10-Year yield gap narrowed at the margin in a volatile Wednesday trade, but the risk of re-widening remains, with recent Fed speakers beating the hawkish drum ('22 voter Mester speaks as we type).
- Spot USD/JPY last seen at Y137.40, barely changed on the day. The round figure resistance at Y138.00 draws nearer and a break here would shift focus to Y138.56, the 1.618 proj of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing. Bears look for a sell-off towards Jun 23 low of Y134.27.
- Note that a bearish divergence has been developing in the daily chart, with the RSI failing to mimic higher highs printed by the spot rate.
- Local headline flow remains centred around the shooting of former PM Abe, with media outlets sharing new details on the incident as they emerge.
- Final industrial output headlines the local data docket today.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.