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Yields A Touch Lower, Comments From BoE's Mann Due Later

GILTS
Bank Of England (BOE) Market NewsHomepageBond Market NewsBulletMarketsFixed Income Bullets

Gilt futures (Z4) stick to a narrow 21-tick range, +14 at 98.94.

  • Initial resistance at yesterday’s high (99.21), support at yesterday’s low (98.54).
  • First notice for G U4 is tomorrow, with over 85% of the roll complete.
  • Yields 1-2bp lower across the curve.
  • Crude oil futures hit the lowest level of the week, providing some background support for gilts.
  • BoE hawk Mann will appear on a panel discussing “The Value of Economic Research for Policy” (13:15 London). There is no live streaming of the event.
  • Don’t expect much new from Mann today.
  • BoE comments have refrained from signalling a need for back-to-back cuts, stopping the market from fully discounting sequential easing at meetings through early ’25 (~40bp of cuts currently priced through year end).
  • GBP1.5bn of 0.75% Nov-33 I/L supply was smoothly digested.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Sep-244.905-4.5
Nov-244.688-26.2
Dec-244.549-40.1
Feb-254.353-59.7
Mar-254.209-74.1
May-254.043-90.7
Jun-253.947-100.3
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Gilt futures (Z4) stick to a narrow 21-tick range, +14 at 98.94.

  • Initial resistance at yesterday’s high (99.21), support at yesterday’s low (98.54).
  • First notice for G U4 is tomorrow, with over 85% of the roll complete.
  • Yields 1-2bp lower across the curve.
  • Crude oil futures hit the lowest level of the week, providing some background support for gilts.
  • BoE hawk Mann will appear on a panel discussing “The Value of Economic Research for Policy” (13:15 London). There is no live streaming of the event.
  • Don’t expect much new from Mann today.
  • BoE comments have refrained from signalling a need for back-to-back cuts, stopping the market from fully discounting sequential easing at meetings through early ’25 (~40bp of cuts currently priced through year end).
  • GBP1.5bn of 0.75% Nov-33 I/L supply was smoothly digested.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Sep-244.905-4.5
Nov-244.688-26.2
Dec-244.549-40.1
Feb-254.353-59.7
Mar-254.209-74.1
May-254.043-90.7
Jun-253.947-100.3