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Yields Firm On Monday, Fed Meeting In View

US TSYS

TYH3 deals at 114-13, +0-04, in with late NY Levels.

  • Cash Tsys finished Monday 3-5bp cheaper across the major benchmarks.
  • Pressure on EU FI, as Spanish CPI was higher than expected (although muddied by methodology tweaks), spilled over onto Tsys in the European session.
  • The Dallas Fed Manf Activity printed stronger than exp., however the measure is still in contractionary territory.
  • Tsys firmed off lows in the NY session, respecting tight ranges, with pre-Fed positioning dominating.
  • A late block buy in TY futures (+10K) aided the move away from lows, although a block sale in TU futures (-9,151) helped cap the bid.
  • Ahead of Wednesday's Fed meeting OIS markets are steady, pricing in a ~26bp hike for the event, alongside a terminal rate of ~4.93% which is below the Feds dot plot median of 5.10%.
  • Official PMI data from China headlines the Asia-Pac session. Further out Eurozone GDP and U.S. consumer confidence will cross the wires.

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