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Yields Higher After Retail Sales Data Beats

AUSSIE BONDS

ACGBs gap as much as 4-6bp lower (YM -4.0 & XM -2.5) after retail sales for May prints significantly stronger than expected at +0.7% m/m versus expectations of +0.1%. Other data released showed a 2.0% fall q/q in job vacancies in May.

  • Cash ACGBs are 3-4bp cheaper after the data with the AU-US 10-year yield differential +5bp at +17bp.
  • Swap rates are 2-3bp higher after the data to be 2-4bp higher on the day with the 3s10s curve flatter.
  • The bills strip bear flattens with pricing -7 to -2.
  • RBA dated OIS pricing is 2-10bp firmer across meetings after the data with Feb-24 leading. The market now attaches a 43% chance of a 25bp hike in July versus 31% yesterday.
  • Elsewhere, ABC reports that half a million customers surveyed by the National Australia Bank found that while borrowers are resilient, they're saving an average A$286 a month by cutting back on restaurants, coffees, lunches, movies and food delivery services.
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