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Free AccessZAR Continues to Slide as SARB Brushes off Higher CPI - Keeping Policy Accommodative
- USD/ZAR trades +0.91% higher at the open, tracking the BBDXY and USD/CNH in early trading as mixed risk sentiment filters through from APAC.
- The cross continued to drive higher on Friday, making a decisive break of the 50dma to move towards the 61.8% Fib (14.8864) of the 20 Aug-10Sept range. Price action remains bullish as we approach the SARB & FOMC this week, with ZAR among the most vulnerable in the high-beta space to rising UST yields.
- The SARB is broadly expected to keep rates on hold this week, with inflation well contained within the target range. Although CPI is expected to tick up to 4.9% y/y in August, Gov Kganyago is likely to reiterate his focus on medium-term disinflationary vectors, which remain anchored around the midpoint of the 3-6% target range at 4.3-4.5%.
- The FOMC will be the major focus in the aftermath of the SARB, with all eyes on the dot plot for signs of lift-off and the speed/frequency of hikes in 2024 which could precipitate additional volatility in the UST market.
- The cross remains biased to the upside, but may get sticky around 14.88-15.08 – with ZAR fundamentals still relatively robust vs many others in the EM space.
- Intraday Sup1: 14.7583, Sup2: 14.6577, Res1: 14.8864, Res2: 14.9781
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.