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ZAR Slides as Political Headwinds Increase in 2022

SOUTH AFRICA
  • USD/ZAR trades +0.43% higher this morning, holding onto gains above the 15.50 handle on the back of early BBDXY strength.
  • The cross drifted +0.39% higher yesterday, following on from Friday’s bullish price action.
  • The release of the expert report on July’s riots shone a light on factionalism within the ANC and the risks associated with further party degradation – adding to political headwinds ahead of the December elective conference.
  • The potential collapse and delay for municipal budgets in Gauteng (SA’s mining hub) also poses a risk and highlights the complicated landscape of hung metros that resulted from the ANC’s poor local election showing.
  • Locals will be focused on Ramaphosa’s SONA address (Thurs) for the ANC’s roadmap on key issues like unemployment, reforms, SOEs, corruption and social welfare – but be more critical on any signs of big dreams and impossible implementation than in previous years.
  • Techs in USD/ZAR are becoming incrementally more bullish, but markets will look for a close above the 50dma to confirm this bias.
  • Intraday Sup1: 15.4902, Sup2: 14.4013, Res1: 15.6681, Res2: 15.7147
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com

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