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Zelenskyy Discusses Setting Up Military Administration For Kursk

SECURITY

Reuters reporting that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says he discussed with top officials the humanitarian situation in Kursk region, and "creation of military administrations if necessary."

  • Zelenskyy's comments appear to suggest that Ukraine may be preparing for longer-term control in the Kursk region, a strategy considered by military analysts unlikely in the early days of the Kursk operation due to the high risk of losing soldiers and matériel.
  • Military expert Mick Ryan noted on Aug 12: "Option 1 for the Ukrainian [operation] is to consolidate on the terrain they have seized so far and then defend it until some form of negotiation takes place. This is the highest risk option because, as the maps show, the Ukrainian dispositions feature multiple small salients which would be easily cut off and destroyed by even a semi-competent Russian commander."
  • Open-source intelligence analysis, corroborated by Sky News, has noted that Russian forces are digging defence lines 45kms behind the Ukrainian border. Such a line would cede considerable territory to Ukraine in the event of a Russian withdrawal, supporting suggestions that the Ukrainian incursion may have exposed a shortage of Russian reserve troops.
  • Bloomberg reports that, "The situation [in Kursk] may force Russia to consider a new mobilization, according to two of the people. Officials may present it as a rotation measure to rest frontline troops, one of the people said, while another said a draft may be ordered as soon as the end of this year."

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