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Zemmour Not Running Would Boost Le Pen, Macron: Poll

FRANCE

In the latest Harris Interactive opinion polling for the French presidential election in 2022, should right-wing broadcaster and writer Eric Zemmour choose not to run for office it would provide a notable boost for National Rally (RN) leader Marine Le Pen. This in turn provides positive news for incumbent President Emmanuel Macron, as he would be the overwhelming favourite in a second round run-off against Le Pen.

  • Scenario: Bertrand as LR candidate, Zemmour (Ind) doesn't run: Le Pen (RN): 26% (+4), Macron (LREM): 25% (+1), Bertrand (LR): 15%
  • Scenario: Pécresse as LR candidate, Zemmour (Ind) doesn't run: Macron (LREM): 27% (+2), Le Pen (RN): 26% (+3), Mélenchon (LFI): 11%, Pécresse (LR): 11%.
  • Scenario: Barnier as LR candidate, Zemmour (Ind) doesn't run Macron (LREM): 28% (+2) Le Pen (RN): 27% (+1) Mélenchon (LFI): 11%, Barnier (LR): 9%
    • All Harris Interactive, +/- vs. 10-13 Sept. Fieldwork: 8-11 October 2021. Sample size: 1,051
The latest polls from BVA with Zemmour running are also more positive for Le Pen than some recent surveys, which have shown Zemmour entering the second round with Macron. Here, Le Pen retains a narrow lead over Zemmour in all scenarios related to potential centre-right Les Republicains (LR) candidates:
  • Scenario: Bertrand as LR candidate: Macron (LREM): 26%, Le Pen (RN): 16%, Zemmour (Ind): 14%, Bertrand (LR): 12%
  • Scenario: Pécresse as LR candidate: Macron (LREM): 27%, Le Pen (RN): 17%, Zemmour (Ind): 14%, Pécresse (LR): 10%
  • Scenario: Barnier as LR candidate: Macron (LREM): 27%, Le Pen (RN): 17%, Zemmour (Ind): 13%, Barnier (LR): 8.5%
    • All polls BVA (among likely voters). Fieldwork: 7-11 October 2021 Sample size: 876
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