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Zloty Remains On Front Foot, POLGB Auction Eyed

PLN

EUR/PLN has edged lower to last sit -65 pips at 4.3627, registering losses for the fourth day in a row. The initial layer of technical support has been defined at 4.2447, the low print of Jan 22. Bulls need a break above Jan 17 high of 4..4124 to regain the initiative. USD/PLN holds a very tight range, staying above 4.00 for now. Meanwhile, PLN/HUF has soared to fresh cyclical highs amid Hungary's continued tensions with the EU.

  • Santander see potential for a slight appreciation of the zloty over the next few months, assuming EUR/USD strengthening and the inflow of fresh EU funds. ING expect EUR/PLN to fall to 4.32, possibly 4.30, over the next two weeks and further to 4.25-4.20 over the medium term.
  • POLGBs are broadly firmer, with the belly of the curve outperforming as we type. Yields sit 2.8-6.7bp lower. The Finance Ministry will offer PLN5bn-7bn worth of bonds at an auction today, with the offering seen as another test of market acceptance for increased supply in budget 2024.
  • The local data docket is virtually empty today, with annual GDP data coming up Wednesday.
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