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Bowman The Top 2022 Dot?


Assuming Gov Bowman is indeed looking for 225bp of further hikes this year as her comments suggest (75 Jul, 50 Sep+Nov+Dec), AND she hasn't come to that conclusion in the past two weeks - then she is the biggest 2022 rate hawk on the FOMC with the top dot in the 2022 projections (3.75-4.00%).

  • Some had speculated it had been Minneapolis' Kashkari who was the top dot - he wrote after the June FOMC that he "could support" another 75bp hike in July, and "a prudent strategy might be, after the July meeting, to simply continue with 50-basis-point hikes until inflation is well on its way down to 2 percent." But 225bp may not have been his central case.

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