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MNI GLOBAL WEEK AHEAD: Eyes on US CPI

MNI (London)

The week ahead is relatively quiet on the European data front, with final CPI prints due across the Eurozone which will likely be overshadowed by Swedish and Norwegian first and final prints CPI for July.

US CPI will be a key focus for global markets this week, whilst in central bank news, Banxico is set to hike again on Thursday.

Wednesday:

Norway CPI (0700 BST): A small 0.1pp acceleration to a fresh 1988-high of +6.4% y/y is anticipated for Norwegian CPI, whilst the month-on-month change is expected to be unchanged form June at +0.9% m/m. Despite easing energy prices passing through, more widespread inflation will account for the uptick.

US CPI (1330 BST): All eyes will be on US inflation on Wednesday, as consensus looks for a 0.4pp slowdown to +8.7% y/y. This would see a sharp month-on-month decrease to +0.2% m/m. Whether US CPI is truly stepping down from the 40-year high June peak is not a given following the 0.5pp upside surprise. With nonfarm payrolls coming in at double consensus expectations, a continued surge in inflation sees a strong increase in the chance of the Fed delivering a 75bp September hike.

Thursday:

Mexico Central Bank Decision (1900 BST): Banxico has teed up another 75bp hike for their August meeting, after unanimously voting to bring the bank rate to 7.75% and keeping pace with the Fed.

Friday:

Sweden CPI (0700 BST): Swedish headline inflation is substantially hotter than neighbouring Norway, with consensus seeing the rate unchanged at +8.7% y/y and the month-on-month increase slowing by 1.1pp to a milder +0.3% m/m. The Riksbank will be as usual focussing on the CPIF rate (fixed interest rate inflation), which should slow by 0.3pp to +8.2% y/y.

UK Q2 GDP Estimate (0700 BST)

After Thursday’s BOE forecasts seeing five quarters of recession starting next quarter, there will be little optimism surrounding the prelim 2 print which should see a -0.2% q/q contraction and a softer +2.8% y/y expansion (vs +8.7% y/y in Q1). The Bank’s decision to hike sharply into an oncoming recession and reiteration of willing to act “forcefully” underscores that as long as the labour market remains tight, there is room to hike. (See our review of last week’s meeting here)

Data forecasts for the week ahead:

DateGMT/LocalImpactPeriodFlagCountryReleasePriorConsensus
08/08/20220545/0745**JulCHUnemployment Rate2.22.2%
08/08/20220545/0745**JulCHUnemployment m/m-5.6--%
08/08/20220545/0745**JulCHUnemployment y/y-29.8--%
08/08/20221500/1100**AugUSNY Fed expectations survey----
08/08/20221530/1130*12-AugUSBid to Cover Ratio2.91--
08/08/20221530/1130*12-AugUSBid to Cover Ratio2.63--
09/08/20222301/0001*JulUKBRC Like-for-Like Sales y/y-1.3--%
09/08/20222301/0001*JulUKBRC Total Sales y/y-1.0--%
09/08/20220900/1000**12-AugUKBid to Cover Ratio----
09/08/20221000/0600**JulUSNFIB Small Business Index89.589.3
09/08/20221230/0830**Q2USPrevious Non-Farm Productivity Revised6.3--%
09/08/20221230/0830**Q2USPrevious Non-Farm Productivity Unit Labor Revised1.0--%
09/08/20221230/0830**Q2USnon-farm productivity (p)-7.3-4.5%
09/08/20221230/0830**Q2USunit labor costs (p)12.689.3%
09/08/20221255/0855**06-AugUSRedbook Retail Sales y/y (month)14.1--%
09/08/20221255/0855**06-AugUSRedbook Retail Sales y/y (week)15.5--%
09/08/20221400/1000**AugUSIBD/TIPP Optimism Index38.5--
09/08/20221530/1130**JulUSBid to Cover Ratio3.17--
09/08/20221700/1300***AugUSBid to Cover Ratio2.43--
10/08/20220600/0800*JulNOCPI m/m0.90.9%
10/08/20220600/0800*JulNOCPI y/y6.36.3%
10/08/20220600/0800***JulDEHICP (f) m/m0.80.8%
10/08/20220600/0800***JulDEHICP (f) y/y8.58.5%
10/08/20220800/1000**JulITItaly Final HICP m/m-1.1-1.1%
10/08/20220800/1000**JulITItaly Final HICP y/y8.48.4%
10/08/20221100/0700**05-AugUSMBA Mortgage Applications w/w1.2--%
10/08/20221230/0830***JulUSCPI Ex Food and Energy m/m0.70.5%
10/08/20221230/0830***JulUSCPI Ex Food and Energy y/y (core nsa)5.96.1%
10/08/20221230/0830***JulUSCPI m/m1.30.2%
10/08/20221230/0830***JulUSCPI y/y (nsa)9.18.7%
10/08/20221400/1000**JunUSWholesale Inventories m/m1.91.9%
10/08/20221400/1000**JunUSWholesale Sales m/m0.5--%
10/08/20221430/1030**05-AugUSCrude Oil Stocks ex. SPR w/w4.467--bbl (m)
10/08/20221430/1030**05-AugUSDistillate Stocks w/w change-2.4--bbl (m)
10/08/20221430/1030**05-AugUSGasoline Stocks w/w change0.163--bbl (m)
10/08/20221700/1300**AugUSBid to Cover Ratio2.34--
10/08/20221800/1400**JulUSTreasury budget balance-88.842--USD (b)
11/08/20222301/0001*JulUKRICS house prices65--%
11/08/20221230/0830**06-AugUSContinuing Claims1416.01405 (k)
11/08/20221230/0830**06-AugUSInitial Jobless Claims260.0263 (k)
11/08/20221230/0830**06-AugUSPrev Continuing Claims, Rev1368.0-- (k)
11/08/20221230/0830**06-AugUSPrev Initial Jobless Claims, Rev254.0-- (k)
11/08/20221230/0830***JulUSFinal Demand PPI m/m1.10.3%
11/08/20221230/0830***JulUSPPI ex-food, energy, trade m/m0.30.4%
11/08/20221230/0830***JulUSPPI ex. food and energy m/m0.40.4%
11/08/20221230/0830**04-AugUSCorn Net Sales57.9--MT (k)
11/08/20221230/0830**04-AugUSCorn Weekly Exports1021.1--MT (k)
11/08/20221230/0830**04-AugUSSoy Net Sales-11.0--MT (k)
11/08/20221230/0830**04-AugUSSoy Weekly Exports527.6--MT (k)
11/08/20221230/0830**04-AugUSWheat Net Sales249.9--MT (k)
11/08/20221230/0830**04-AugUSWheat Weekly Exports288.4--MT (k)
11/08/20221430/1030**05-AugUSNatural Gas Stocks w/w41.0--Bcf
11/08/20221700/1300***AugUSBid to Cover Ratio2.44--
11/08/20221800/1400***MXInterest Rate----%
12/08/20220600/0700**JunUKIndex of Services 3m/3m0.1-0.5%
12/08/20220600/0700**JunUKIndex of Services m/m0.4-0.9%
12/08/20220600/0700***JunUKIndustrial Production m/m0.9-1.4%
12/08/20220600/0700***JunUKIndustrial Production y/y1.41.9%
12/08/20220600/0700***JunUKManufacturing Output m/m1.3-1.8%
12/08/20220600/0700***JunUKManufacturing Output y/y2.30.9%
12/08/20220600/0700**JunUKGDP - 3m y/y8.72.9%
12/08/20220600/0700**JunUKGDP - 3m/3m0.8-0.1%
12/08/20220600/0700**JunUKGDP - m/m0.5-1.1%
12/08/20220600/0700**JunUKConstruction Output m/m1.5-2.0%
12/08/20220600/0700**JunUKConstruction Output y/y4.83.0%
12/08/20220600/0700**JunUKNon-EU Trade Balance-10.367--GBP (b)
12/08/20220600/0700**JunUKTotal Trade Balance-9.747-10.5GBP (b)
12/08/20220600/0700**JunUKVisible Trade Balance-21.445-22.3GBP (b)
12/08/20220600/0700***Q2UKGDP (1st) q/q0.8-0.1%
12/08/20220600/0700***Q2UKGDP (1st) y/y8.72.9%
12/08/20220600/0800***JulSECPIF y/y8.58.3%
12/08/20220645/0845***JulFRHICP (f) m/m0.30.3%
12/08/20220645/0845***JulFRHICP (f) y/y6.86.8%
12/08/20220700/0900***JulESHICP (f) m/m1.9--%
12/08/20220700/0900***JulESHICP (f) y/y10.0--%
12/08/20220900/1100**JunEUIndustrial Production m/m0.80.4%
12/08/20220900/1100**JunEUIndustrial Production y/y wda1.61.1%
12/08/20221230/0830**JulUSExports Price Index m/m0.7-1.2%
12/08/20221230/0830**JulUSImports Price Index m/m0.2-0.9%
12/08/20221400/1000***AugUSMichigan sentiment index (p)51.552.0
12/08/20221600/1200***15/16USCorn Ending Stocks current year---- (m)
12/08/20221600/1200***15/16USCorn Production current year---- (m)
12/08/20221600/1200***15/16USCorn yield per acre current year----
12/08/20221600/1200***15/16USCotton Ending Stocks current year---- (m)
12/08/20221600/1200***15/16USCotton Production current year---- (m)
12/08/20221600/1200***15/16USSoybeans - Ending Stocks current year---- (m)
12/08/20221600/1200***15/16USSoybeans Production current year---- (m)
12/08/20221600/1200***15/16USSoybeans yield per acre current year----
12/08/20221600/1200***15/16USWheat - Ending Stocks current year---- (m)
12/08/20221600/1200***15/16USWheat Production current year---- (m)

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