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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessOECD Forecasts Global GDP $2.8 Trillion Lower than Pre-Ukraine War
- The global economy is slowing more than expected. Global GDP is now expected to be USD 2.8 trillion lower than the pre-Ukraine war forecast.
- The OECD is anticipating 3.0% y/y global real growth for 2022 and 2.25% for 2023 (over 1pp lower than the pre- war December forecast). Germany is expected to enter a recession in 2023, shrinking by 0.7%.
- Slowing growth is driven by global tightening of monetary policy as inflation continues to outpace targets and expectations.
- Risks are skewed to the downside. The Ukraine war has caused a surge in food and commodity prices, which alongside weak Chinese growth has generated uncertain and pessimistic global outlooks.
- Disruption in energy supply and global food security risks remain elevated. Global food supply risks are worsened by the challenge of climate-change-induced extreme weather.
- Markets are pricing increased risks to growth. Spreads have widened (notably in Europe) and a substantial risk-off environment had materialised, intensifying capital outflows from EMs.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.