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1 Month USD/KRW Back Sub 20-day EMA On Broad USD Pullback

KRW

1 month USD/KRW enjoyed a sharp pull back in NY trade on Monday. From above the 1350 region we fell back to 1341/42. We closed near 1341.60, with the won recording a 0.49% gain for the session. Note onshore spot ended yesterday at 1353.70, so the early impetus is likely to be to the downside when spot opens later this morning.

  • This puts the 1 month USD/KRW NDF sub its 20-day EMA (~1345), but breaks sub this level haven't proven sustainable in recent months, see the chart below.
  • The won was aided by the pull back in US yields, with the 10yr rejecting the 5.00% handle, which weighed on the USD more broadly.
  • Equity sentiment was mixed across the major markets. In the tech space, the SOX fell 0.53%, while the MSCI IT index gained 0.32%. To recap, the Kospi fell 0.76% yesterday, with offshore investors selling -$134.8mn of local shares.
  • On the data front today we have already had the PPI for September. It rose 1.3% y/y (prior 1.0%), up 0.4% m/m (prior 0.9%). Due later today is local resident monthly data on FX deposits, released by the BoK.

Fig 1: 1 Month USD/KRW & Key EMAs


Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg

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