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1 Month USD/KRW Just Shy Of Recent Highs, PMI Out Today


1 month USD/KRW finished close to recent highs in NY on Friday, in the 1304/05 region. Onshore spot closed on Friday at 1301.85. Month end dynamics could have been at play, with South Korea's trade deficit potentially aiding USD demand on Friday.

  • The early focus today is likely to be on whether we can push higher above the 1305 region. The oil spike has generally supported the USD in early dealings today, while weighing on US equity futures, although we are away from lows for the session.
  • South Korea is a net energy importer, so the price spike, if sustained, will weigh on the terms of trade backdrop, all else equal.
  • This may overshadow the generally positive lead from tech equities from Friday's session.
  • On Saturday we had March trade data, with export growth at -13.6% y/y, slightly better than expected (-16.0% forecast), but average daily exports remained weak at -17.2% y/y. The trade deficit was -$4.62bn, versus a forecast of -$6bn. The authorities will hold a meeting today around the export slump post the weekend data.
  • Later today, the March manufacturing PMI is due, the Feb print was 48.5.
  • Also note, the authorities sold $4.6bn in the FX market in Q4 last year.

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