MNI China Daily Summary: Wednesday, April 17

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10Y Yield Fails to Break Below 100D SMA

HUNGARY
  • Last week, economic data showed that Hungary May CPI came in slightly lower than expected at 5.1% (vs. 5.3% exp.), leading to more hawkish tone from NBH policymaker.
  • As a result, deputy Governor Barnabas Virag once again confirmed on Thursday that he sees the end of ultra-loose monetary policy due to sustained CPI risks and therefore thinks that the NBH needs to gradually normalize ST rates. Virag expects CPI to be higher than 4% this year (above the NBH upper tolerance band).
  • NBH Governor György Matolcsy also mentioned that monetary tightening is necessary following CPI data.
  • USDHUF has been retracing higher in the past two weeks, trading at the high of its 283-287 range; resistances to watch on the topside stand at 290 and 293 (50D SMA). On the downside, first support below 283 stands at 280.
  • Hungary 10Yyield failed to break below its 100D SMA on Friday (2.67%) after consolidating sharply since the start of the month; next support stands at 2.60%. On the topside, first resistance stands at 2.82% (50D SMA), followed by 3%.
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