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10yr Yields Lower, AU-US10yr Spread Narrows, RBA SoMP Out Tomorrow

AUSSIE BONDS

ACGBs have exhibited the same flattening trend evident elsewhere in the bond space. 10yr futures opened higher, but couldn't breach the 95.50 level. We last tracked at 95.46, +.05, largely holding on to Wednesday gains. 3yr futures have tracked slightly lower, last at 95.82, -.01, largely moving sideways in recent sessions.

  • In the cash space, the 10-30yr segments are down around 5bps in yield terms. The 10yr yield now back to 4.53%, close to mid-October levels.
  • AU-US 10yr spreads have retreated further, back to +4bps, well off earlier Nov highs above +20bps.
  • There has been little in the way of domestic news flow, with RBA watchers waiting for updated forecast projections from tomorrow's quarterly monetary policy statement.
  • RBA terminal rate hikes expectations remain near 4.46%, so around half another hike priced in between now and May next year.
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