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1st Round of Presidential Elections Proves Market Friendly
- A solid start to the session for Brazilian assets, with BRL and local equities outperforming all others in the region, while local swap rates are under pressure.
- Moves follow the 1st round of the Presidential election being much closer than expected, with Lula on 48% vs. Bolsonaro's 43%, with both candidates likely coming under pressure to appeal to the centrist vote in the run-off due at the end of October.
- Markets are on watch for the resumption of the campaign and in particular any endorsement from those eliminated in the first round (center-left Gomes and center-right Tebet). Expectations area for the Gomes supporters to naturally tend toward Lula, while Tebet's support could be more evenly split the two remaining candidates.
- USD/BRL gapped lower, touching the lowest level since Sep23 to narrow the gap with the 50-dma at 5.1963.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.