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1yr MLF Expected To Be Cut Tomorrow, May Activity Data To Weaken

CHINA DATA

A reminder that tomorrow delivers the 1yr MLF decision, with 2.65% forecast, a -10bps move lower, with consensus having shifted since the start of the week post yesterday's reverse repo and SLF cuts. In terms of MLF volumes, the consensus is at 212.5bn yuan, versus 125bn prior.

  • Also out tomorrow is the May activity data. Expectations mostly sit to the downside relative to Apr outcomes. Any downside surprises may impact China related asset sentiment less though, given this week's rate cuts and renewed talk of stimulus. Conversely upside surprises may help somewhat of a relief rally, given disappointing outcomes in recent months and lowered China growth expectations.
  • For IP, the market forecast is 3.5% y/y, prior 5.6% (forecast range 1.2% - 9.4%).
  • For retail sales, the market forecast is 13.7% y/y, prior 18.4% (forecast range 10.0% - 19.5%).
  • For fixed asset investment, the market forecast is 4.4% ytd y/y, prior was 4.7%, while property investment is expected to remain depressed at -6.7% ytd y/y (prior -6.2%).
  • The jobless rate is forecast at 5.2%, unchanged from Apr.
  • New home prices for May will also print, there is no consensus but the prior month was +0.32%.
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