Free Trial
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
UK
Betting markets continue to assign a greater than 50% implied probability that PM Liz Truss leaves office in 2022, with data from Smarkets showing the figure for this year currently standing at 55.0%. This number has fallen from its weekend peak of 66.7%, but it appears bettors do not believe the replacement of chancellor with new man Jeremy Hunt and the anticipated reversal of nearly all mini-budget measures will be enough to save Truss from an imminent defenestration by her party.
- Bettors give a 32.3% implied probability that Truss leaves office in 2023, falling to 6.5% in 2024 (the year of the next scheduled election), and 5% in 2025 or later.
- While the measures in today's snap statement by Chancellor Jeremy Hunt could be enough to calm fractious markets, they could prove counterproductive in winning the public over. The reversal of planned income tax cuts will see pressure on household budgets remain high when rising interest rates are pushing up mortgage cots.
Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of Year Liz Truss Leaves Office, %
Source: Smarkets
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
We are facing technical issues, please contact our team.
ok
Your request was sent sucessfully! Our team will contact you soon.
ok