3/7/30-year BTPs

Italy will come to the market tomorrow for its first auction of 2021 (although it has already sold E10bln of the new 0.95% Mar-37 BTP via syndication. On offer will be E7.75-9.25bln.

• E2.25-2.75bln of 0% Jan-24 BTP: This will be the fourth auction of the BTP with E11.1bln of the issue outstanding before tomorrow's auction. Despite reducing auction sizes, bid-to-covers for the issue have stayed around a constant 1.4x. We expect another similar results at this auction. This is probably the final (or if not penultimate) auction of the 0% Jan-24 before the new Apr-24 BTP launches.
• E4.0-4.5bln of the new 0.25% Mar-28 BTP. The previous 7-year benchmark, the 0.95% Sep-27 BTP launched in July with orders of E6.2bln and E4.5bln was sold. Since then, with the exception of November, bids have been in the E3.9-4.5bln area. We would expect a decent launch tomorrow.
• E1.5-2.0bln 1.70% Sep-51 BTP. This will be the first auction of the issue after it was launched in October via syndication for E8.0bln. Auctions of the 2.45% Sep-50 BTP in both August and October saw bid-to-covers in the vicinity of 1.4x.