Free Trial

3 ECB Cuts Discounted Through ‘24

STIR

Euribor futures have moved a touch higher alongside core global bonds following the RBA decision but remain within yesterday’s ranges, flat to +3.5 ticks.

  • End-24 ECB implied rates drifted a touch higher yesterday, leaving 75bps of cuts priced.
  • A 25bp June cut remains close to fully discounted, with ~23bps of easing priced.
  • Yesterday’s ECB speak saw Simkus note his expectation for three rate cuts this year. Previously, he had said that three or four cuts were possible.
  • Elsewhere, Chief Economist Lane and Vujcic gave little away re: the path for rates beyond the June meeting.
  • ECB speak from de Cos and Nagel is scheduled today, with no real tier 1 data due.

Meeting Date ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp)
Jun-243.679-23.0
Jul-243.600-30.9
Sep-243.403-50.7
Oct-243.319-59.0
Dec-243.163-74.7

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.