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50bps Hike Likely, Peak Nearing

SNB
  • The bank are likely to reinstate the rate differential with the ECB at the June meeting, hiking the policy rate by 50bps to 2.00%. A vigilant approach on inflation, bank fragility fading into the rearview mirror and higher foreign rates will be the key driver for policy this quarter. However, peak rates are approaching and the bank could stress that FX management will become the key policy tool going forward, restricting financial conditions inter-meeting.

  • Since March, the bank have been vindicated in their decision to look through confidence concerns surrounding the UBS-Credit Suisse tie-up, and will likely continue to view such stability risks as tangential to their monetary policy approach for now. March’s decision confirmed that inflation remains the distinct priority, even prompting Jordan to state that “not hiking rates was not on the table for us”. That will likely remain the case ahead and recent SNB communications confirm as such.

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