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5Y Yields Pull Back To Rally ‘Only’ 16bps

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys reversed the huge bid following the ISM miss but still saw yields down 16bps in the belly before an early close (having touched -25bps at one point). The overriding story from the ISM manufacturing survey was new orders contracting for the first time since May’20 and the elevated risk of a technical recession more generally, with the Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker for Q2 being revised down even further to -2% annualized.
  • However, these latest developments are now seen to support the morning’s price moves rather than warrant adding to them, considering the 5Y is already down more than 40bps from Tuesday’s recent high.
  • The moves have been dominated by adjustments in real yields. Following the post-ISM round trip, the picture further along the curve is unchanged from this morning: 10Y real yields have slipped 14bps on a day that inflation breakevens have stabilised after sliding to pre-taper levels of sub-2.40% in June.
  • 2YY -12bps at 2.833%, 5YY -16bps at 2.877%, 10YY -13.3bps at 2.880%, 30YY -8bps at 3.103%.
  • TYU2 sits 27 ticks higher on the day at 119-12 as volumes tail off after a heavy session, having briefly exceeded the 120-00 handle with a high of 120-04. A continuation of today’s acceleration in the uptrend could open key resistance at 120-19+ (May 26 high).
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