MNI BRIEF: China Passenger Car Sales Up In November Y/Y

MNI China Daily Summary: Monday, December 9

MNI BRIEF: China To Strengthen Policy Easing In 2025: Poliburo

MNI BRIEF: Mexico Inflation Down To 4.55% In November

MNI BRIEF: China Nov CPI Slows To 5-Month Low Of 0.2% Y/Y

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1870 Mon; -1.39% Y/Y

MNI:US OCT WHOLESALE INV 0.2%; SALES -0.1%

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: Austria, UK Auction on Tuesday

MNI JAPAN Q3 GDP REV +0.3% Q/Q; PRELIM +0.2%; MEDIAN +0.2%

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

8bps Pullback In ECB/BoE 2024 Rate Cut Expectations

STIR

ECB- and BoE-dated OIS contracts have seen a marked repricing following the firmer than expected US CPI data, headlined by a 0.85% M/M supercore reading.

  • There are now just 113bps of ECB cuts priced through 2024 (vs 121bps pre-data), the least since the end of November '23. Nearer-term meetings see smaller moves, with 13bps priced through the April meeting (vs 16bps pre-data) and 35bps priced through June (vs 39bps pre-data).
  • BoE-dated OIS show 66bps of cuts priced through 2024 (vs 74bps pre-US data and 78bp pre-UK labour market data), with the first full 25ps cut now no longer fully priced through the August meeting: 24bps priced vs 29bps pre-US CPI data.

Figure 1. ESTR ECB-dated OIS Pricing


Meeting Date ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp)
Mar-243.894-1.5
Apr-243.777-13.2
Jun-243.560-34.9
Jul-243.377-53.2
Sep-243.149-76.0
Oct-242.966-94.3
Dec-242.781-112.8
Jan-252.635-127.4
Source: MNI/Bloomberg

Figure 2: SONIA BoE-dated OIS Pricing


Meeting DateSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Mar-245.1910.3
May-245.144-4.4
Jun-245.076-11.2
Aug-244.947-24.2
Sep-244.826-36.2
Nov-244.655-53.3
Dec-244.530-65.8
Feb-254.386-80.2
Source: MNI/Bloomberg
BulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsHomepage
BulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsHomepage

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.