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A busy period for MPC speakers (1/3)

BOE
  • Last week we heard from several MPC members. We think that the most significant was the speech from Ramsden on Friday in which he described the risks to inflation relative to the February MPR forecasts as “now tilted to the downside, with a scenario where inflation stays close to the 2% target over the whole forecast period at least as likely.”
  • We had flagged both in our preview ahead of his speech on Friday and in our March MPC preview that we thought that Ramsden and/or Breeden were the most likely candidates to be first to vote for a cut – Ramsden due to his slightly more activist voting history and Breeden since we have heard very little in detail about her monetary policy views (she normally sticks largely to FPC issues in her speeches).
  • Ramsden’s speech noted that rather than being an outlier, the UK now looked like a laggard on inflation – which was largely due to the way the government’s energy price policy filtered through in a lagging fashion – a view that we have shared for some time. We assign around a 25% probability that Ramsden switches to voting for an immediate cut at the May MPC meeting – although still only see a 10% probability that a quorum can be reached across the MPC for a rate cut in May.
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