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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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The battle for control the Senate has edged slightly back towards the GOP after a summer dominated by a strong Democrat performance in Congress and the Supreme Court "Dobbs" decision.
- Presented below is FiveThirtyEight's six tightest Senate races.
- VP Kamala Harris casts the tiebreaking vote in the 50-50 Senate meaning the GOP will need 51 seats to take control of the chamber. For this the GOP must hold all four of the seats (below) they control and flip one of the two Democrat held seats.
- A likely scenario is Senator Ron Johnson (R-WI) holding his Wisconsin seat, Rep Ted Budd (R-NC) winning in North Carolina, and JD Vance (R) winning in Ohio.
- In this scenario, all eyes will be on if Lt Gov John Fetterman (D-PA) can shrug off concerns over his health to flip the Pennsylvania seat. This race is expected to get tighter as GOP candidate Mehmet Oz gains ground.
- If Fetterman can win Pennsylvania, Democrats will likely maintain control of the Senate as the chances of Republicans flipping two seats insulated by incumbency is considered unlikely.
Figure 1: Tightest Senate Races, Probability of Republican or Democrat Win (FiveThirtyEight)
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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