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A Far More Durable Jobs Trend Than Thought But Wage Growth Only Revised Slightly Higher

US DATA
  • Payrolls growth was far stronger than expected in January, surging 517k (cons 189k).
  • It was broken down by private goods 46k, private services 397k and government 74k. Largest service increases led by leisure & hospitality (128k) and private education & health (105k).
  • Prior revisions see an unchanged trend through 1H22 (445k monthly av vs 444k prior) but a stronger trend through 2H22 (357k vs 307k), with a very similar story in private sector trends.
  • Including January, both 3mth and 6mth averages sit at ~350k.
  • What was already a steady moderation in prior trend is much slower than first thought (and clearly far above the ~100k sustainable rate), surprising some having looked for downward revisions in light of weakness in GDI measures in 1H22.
  • Importantly though, the u/e rate also pushing to new recent history lows of 3.43% (cons 3.6%) but has only come with modest upwards revisions to AHE and at an expected 0.3% M/M on the month.

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