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A$ Firms Modestly Post RBA Minutes, testing 200-day EMA

AUD

AUD/USD is a little higher post the RBA minutes. We are at fresh highs near 0.6570, 5-10pips firmer since the mins were released. The RBA minutes appear to leave the door ajar for another rate hike, stating that the forecasts for inflation assumed another 1-2 more rate rises. The risks around inflation not returning to target by 2025 had also risen.

  • Equally the central bank stated the case was credible not to raise rates at the Nov policy meeting. A case which was considered but overruled due to higher inflation risks. Further rate hikes are data dependent. More details on this to follow.
  • For AUD/USD we are modestly outperforming the rest of the G10, up nearly 0.20% versus NY closing levels from Monday. The 200-day EMA (~0.6566) is very close to current spot levels, while the simple 200-day MA (0.6590) is also not too far away.
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