A$ Outperforms, Q3 CPI Coming Up

Aussie outperformed other G10 currencies on Tuesday with the AUDUSD rising 0.3% to 0.6356. It reached a high of 0.6380 early in European trading and then trended lower. Stronger equity markets supported AUD but traders looked through RBA Governor Bullock’s comments that the board will hike again “if there is a material upward revision to the outlook for inflation”. The USD index rose 0.7%.

• The bearish trend in AUDUSD persists though and the bear trigger is at 0.6286. Short term gains are seen as corrective. A break of key resistance at 0.6522 would signal a reversal. Initial resistance is at 0.6393, October 18 high.
• Aussie rose 1% against the euro and pound to 0.5999 and 0.5226 respectively, their highest in a week. AUDJPY is up 0.4% to 95.25 and AUDNZD +0.3% to 1.0872, after a high of 1.0889.
• Equity markets were stronger with the S&P up 0.7% and the Euro stoxx +0.6%. Oil prices fell sharply by around 2% with Brent closing at $88/bbl. Copper rose 1.2% and iron ore is stronger at $116.70/t.
• Today Q3 CPI data print and headline is forecast to ease to 5.3% y/y from 6% in Q2, helped by base effects, but September may have risen slightly to 5.3%. Q3 trimmed mean is also expected to be lower at 5%. See MNI Q3 CPI Should Moderate Further But Quarterly Rise Still High.