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Activity Data Fails To Alter Powerful BRL Rebound

BRAZIL
  • Significant strength in the Brazilian Real this week, appreciating just under 4% versus the dollar.
  • DI swap rates have fallen in line with renewed BRL optimism with contracts expiring in 2028 falling 17 bps.
  • Weak economic activity data released earlier today shrugged off immediately as market participants digest the bolder cut in corporate income tax and Guedes anticipation of 'fast' reform.
  • The most notable domestic data point ahead will be the mid-month IPCA inflation number, due on July 23rd. Previously rising to 8.13%, the data will be eagerly anticipated ahead of the August 4th Copom Meeting.
  • Analyst's remain divided on whether the committee will raise the Selic rate by 75 or 100 bps.
    • - USDBRL down 1.80% at 5.0724
    • - BRLMXN up 0.94% at 3.921
    • - Brazil Ibovespa up 500.6 points (0.39%) at 128600.4
  • Brazil DI Swaps:
    • - 1-yr -4 bps at 5.80%
    • - 2-yr -10 bps at 7.3%
    • - 5-yr -14 bps at 8.51%
    • - 10-yr -15 bps at 9.21%
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