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ADP Miss Shouldn't Have Major Impact On US Nonfarm Outlook

DATA REACT

The April ADP report showed a downside miss vs expectations (+742k vs +850k expected), but made up for to some degree by a +48k upside revision to the March data.

  • This is a similar story to March, where ADP missed by 33k to the downside, but was compensated by a +59k revision to Feb.
  • It was the strongest figure since Sep 20's +821k.
  • The distribution in job growth was remarkably even among business sizes: +235k small business, +230k midsize, +277k large. Though with lockdowns ending, it was services that provided the biggest sectoral boost, with +636k jobs (of which +237k leisure/hospitality), vs +106k for the goods producing sector.
  • In sum this report probably doesn't tell us much we don't already know about the jobs landscape heading into Friday's key nonfarm payrolls report - a continued bounce in jobs led by the re-opening hospitality sector. Current NFP expectations are +995k (+950k private).


Source: ADP

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