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ADP Points To Continued Jobs Growth Moderation

US DATA
  • ADP employment increased 208k (cons 200k) in Sept, a little stronger than expected when also factoring in the +53k upward revision to 185k in Aug. Tsy yields quickly retraced a small dip on the report.
  • Ahead of Friday’s payrolls report, despite the upward revision, this new version of ADP continued to undershoot payrolls strength back in Jul-Aug at an average 227k for ADP vs 393k for private payrolls.
  • Job changes pay growth cooled from 16.2% to 15.7% Y/Y whilst job stayers pay growth increased a tenth to 7.8% Y/Y.
  • ADP press release on jobs market: “Signs that people are returning to the labor market... Employer demand remains robust and the supply of workers is improving--for now.”

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