Free Trial
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US DATA
- AHE growth obviously far stronger than expected in January at 0.55% M/M for total (cons 0.3) or 0.44% for non-supervisory.
- It’s the strongest M/M print since Mar’22 and annual revisions were also higher albeit back-loaded: stronger back in 1H23 (0.38% average vs 0.34% prior) but marginally softer in 2H23 (0.32 vs 0.33% prior).
- It was helped significantly by average weekly hours seeing a highly unusual 0.2pp drop to 34.1. It breaks the pattern of oscillating between 34.3-34.4 since Mar’23, and outside of Mar’20 was last lower in mid-2010.
- There’s a (possibly strong) argument that bad weather biased this lower. Hours are more prone to weather disruption than payroll estimates, and construction, transportation & warehousing, and leisure & hospitality saw the largest declines on the month (-0.4/-0.4/-0.5pps). Further adding to this argument, in the household survey, the 553k not at work due to bad weather was the highest for a January since 2011.
- Nevertheless, it’s still a stark surprise for hours worked, with no analysts forecasting a 34.1 (4 of 29 saw 34.2, 17 saw 34.3 and 8 saw 34.4). If it doesn’t bounce next month it would be a firmly dovish sign.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
We are facing technical issues, please contact our team.
ok
Your request was sent sucessfully! Our team will contact you soon.
ok