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Aligning for Soft Landing Scenario

US TSYS
Tsys weaker after the bell, off session lows after dovish tone from Fed Gov Brainard helped spur risk-off unwinds in rates and equities Thursday.
  • Brainard Offers Broadly Dovish Speech: Headlines that the Fed needs 'sufficiently' restrictive' policy for some time belied a broadly dovish speech from VC Brainard across a number of areas, including full effects of tightening only being felt ahead as some prior accommodation offset initial tightening.
  • Earlier in the session, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said interest rates will likely need to rise in more measured steps to just above 5% and then stay at that level for some time in order to tame inflation that neared 40Y highs.
  • Post-data volatility, Tsys had been rebounding off pre-open lows, experienced fast two-way post data (claims +190k vs. 214k est; Philly Fed -8.9 vs. -11.0 est; house starts 1.382M vs. 1.358M est) extended bounce briefly.
  • Tsy futures bounced slightly after $17B 10Y TIPS sale awarded 1.220% high yld vs. WI 1.277%, 2.79x bid-to-cover best in appr 4 years.
  • Short end metrics: Fed funds implied hike for Feb'23: 26.7bp, Mar'23 cumulative 45.1bp to 4.783%, May'23 54.5bp to 4.877%, terminal at 4.880% in Jun'23.
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