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All Eyes On GDP And CPI Data


ACGBs a weaker (YM -4.0 & XM -3.0) after U.S. Tsys trade mixed at the close of NY trading. The U.S. Tsy 10-year yield hit its highest level since Nov 10 before reversing to be 1bp higher with the yield curve flatter. Cash ACGBs are also 4bp weaker with the curve unchanged and the AU/US 10-year yield differential +3bp at -5bp.

  • Swaps are 4-5bp weaker with the 3s10s curve unchanged.
  • Bills are 3-5bp cheaper through the reds.
  • RBA dated OIS is 1-2bp firmer for meetings beyond May, with terminal rate pricing back to 4.33%. March meeting pricing remains at a 95% chance of a 25bp hike.
  • After looking through yesterday’s upside data surprises, the local calendar sees the release of Q4 GDP with BBG consensus forecasting +0.8% Q/Q after the release of all the quarterly partials.
  • Also on the docket is the relatively new, but increasingly important, monthly read on the CPI. With the RBA expecting inflation to peak in Q4 22, today’s print will likely garner more than normal scrutiny as the market looks for clues about the inflation outlook. RBA’s Jones is also slated to speak.
  • The AOFM is due to auction A$1.200bn of ACGB Nov-32.

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