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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
AUSTRALIA
Latest opinion polling from Australia ahead of the 21 May federal election shows the centre-left Australian Labor Party (ALP) and PM Scott Morrison's centre-right Liberal-National coalition neck-and-neck on 35% of the first preference vote each. However, the ALP retains a sizeable lead in the two-party preferred vote.
- Roy Morgan Poll: Vote Intention: Coalition: 35% (-0.5), ALP: 35%, Greens: 13% (+1), One Nation Party: 3% (-1.5), United Australia Party: 1% (-0.5). +/- vs. 18-24 April 2022. Fieldwork: 25 April-1 May 2022. Sample size: 1,487
- Roy Morgan Poll: Two Party Preferred Vote: ALP : 55.5% (+1), Coalition: 44.5% (-1), +/- vs. 18-24 April 2022. Fieldwork: 25 April-1 May 2022. Sample size: 1,487
- Betting markets show Labour ahead of the Coalition with political bettors. Data from Smarkets gives Labor a 52.6% implied probability of winning the most seats compared to 42.7% for the Coalition. This has narrowed notably since the start of April, though, when the split was 71.4% for the ALP to 26.3% for the Coalition.
- While the ALP's Anthony Albanese remains favourite to become the next PM, polls have shown a tightening in recent days and with more than two weeks remaining in the campaign there is a notable opportunity for the Coalition to recover to win a fourth consecutive term.
- The next major event comes on Sunday 8 May, with the second leaders' debate. Starts 2030AEST (0630ET, 1130BST, 1230CET, 1930JST).
Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of Party Winning Most Seats, %
Source Smarkets
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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