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Although Jobs Volatility And Further Wage Moderation Also Considered [2/2]

CANADA DATA
  • There are, as ever, caveats with the Canadian labour force survey, including the volatility of the jobs figures and their proneness to sizeable revisions.
  • Annual wage growth meanwhile continued to edge lower from a downward revised 4.8% to 4.5% Y/Y (from a Nov peak of 5.8%).
  • Wage growth for full-time positions was stickier at 4.7% Y/Y (but still down from a Nov peak of 5.5%).
  • Both are clearly still elevated, but do at least show signs of moderation, notable against the latest backdrop of surging jobs growth.
  • With the BoC requiring an accumulation of evidence before considering further hikes and data volatility to be considered, analysts we’ve seen so far have been reluctant to change rate calls at this stage.
  • Similarly, about half of the initial sell-off in front-dated GoC bond yields has been retraced although 2YY still sit 7bps higher on the day.

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