An Important Data Week To Gauge Impact Of Tightening

There is a lot of data published this week, especially on the housing market, and a number of inputs into GDP. The housing data are likely to be a focus, as the RBA and market participants attempt to gauge the impact of monetary tightening so far.

• On Monday, retail sales for October print and are expected to rise 0.5% m/m close to last month’s 0.6% reading. This series is nominal and so there is likely to be a price component to the expected increase.
• On Wednesday RBA Head of Domestic Markets Kearns speaks at the Australian Securitisation Conference at 11.00am AEDT.
• Q3 construction work done is released on Wednesday and is predicted to rise 1.8% q/q after a 3.8% drop in Q2. In terms of the current quarter, building approvals for October print and should continue falling by 2% after -5.8% in September. Private sector credit is also out and is expected to be stable at 9.4% y/y.
• The new monthly CPI series is also published on Wednesday and is expected to rise to 7.5% in October from 7.3% and the trimmed mean to 5.7% from 5.4%.
• Private capital expenditure for Q3 is released on Thursday and is predicted to rise 1.5% q/q after contracting by 0.3% in Q2, which would set GDP up for a robust rise (published 7 December).
• In terms of housing, CoreLogic house prices for November print on Thursday and are likely to fall again after -1.1% m/m last month. Home loans for October are published on Friday and are expected to fall 2% m/m after -8.2% last month in the face of rising mortgage rates.