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ANALYSIS: Sell Side Upgrade Calls for 1w Repo Hikes & TRY Longs (2/2)

CBRT
  • Hence, a 200bp hike will likely reinforce real yields sufficiently to cushion against successive upside CPI surprises
  • (although most believe the latest spike to be transitory and reduced by lower FX passthrough)
  • and show meaningful intent to, in Erdogan's words, "make hard decisions and swallow a bitter pill".
  • Political pressure from Erdogan may see the hike come in around 150-200
  • However, a nice round number like 200 will show the "decisiveness" Agbal has been flouting since taking office.
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com

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