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Analyst CPI Recap: July Cuts [1/2]

CANADA
Homepagemarkets-real-timeBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange BulletsCanada Bank of Canada Market News
  • Yesterday’s stronger than expected Canadian CPI data has further muddied the waters for analysts who had generally been split between a next cut coming in July or September after the BoC cut for the first time this cycle earlier this month.
  • BoC-dated OIS shifted from 15bp of cuts to ~10bps for the July meeting, whilst no longer fully pricing a September cut with very roughly a cumulative 20bps.
  • The below analysts either explicitly indicate they still look for a July cut or haven’t changed prior calls.
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  • Yesterday’s stronger than expected Canadian CPI data has further muddied the waters for analysts who had generally been split between a next cut coming in July or September after the BoC cut for the first time this cycle earlier this month.
  • BoC-dated OIS shifted from 15bp of cuts to ~10bps for the July meeting, whilst no longer fully pricing a September cut with very roughly a cumulative 20bps.
  • The below analysts either explicitly indicate they still look for a July cut or haven’t changed prior calls.