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Analyst CPI Wraps (A-Z) – [2/3]

  • GS: The spike in airfares contributed ~10bps to the surprise in core but the composition was generally firm as well.
  • ING: Consumer demand is firm and businesses have pricing power, meaning that they can pass higher costs onto their customers. They look for three more 50bp hikes before reverting to 25bp pace from Nov until peak 3.25% in early 2023.
  • JPM: Mixed changes across core CPI categories, but firmness overall, with persistent strength in the inflation data probably keeping pressure on the FOMC to hike 50bps at upcoming meetings.
  • Mizuho: Highly inertial inflation data, especially with regards to rents, make a hard-landing even more likely in 2022 as the Fed is unlikely to bend from its hawkish guidance in the near-term.
  • MS: Underlying trend for core inflation of 0.5% M/M when looking beyond airfares, broadly unchanged since November. Core PCE is likely notably softer than core CPI but watch PPI for airfares.

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