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Analyst Views: Hawkish to Dovish (2/4)

BOE
CSIf rise in unemployment avoided 25bp hikes in Jun22 and Aug22; then a pause and three further hikes in 2023 to 2.25%. Gilt sales to start Q4-22 at around GBP4-5bln/month.
Berenberg25bp hikes (Jun22 and Q3-22) in reaction to "the sharper inflation surge." Two further hikes in 2023 and one in 2024. Active gilt sales to start in Nov22.
SEBHawkish BOE "confirming near term market pricing for another hike in both June and August.”
Deutsche25bp hikes in Jun22, Aug22 and Feb23 but risk of one fewer. Active gilt sales start late Sep22/early Oct22 at earliest. Likely policy easing end 2023 and cut to 1.00% by end-24.
RBC25bp hikes in Jun22 and Aug22. "May be the tipping point where the market emphasis switched from high inflation to the deteriorating growth outlook."
Barclays25bp hikes in Jun22 and Aug22 after material shift in BOE's narrative. Discussion then shifts to cut prospects. Active gilt sales GBP20-25bln/year start no sooner than early-23.

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