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Analyst Views - Hawkish to Dovish (A-Z) (5/5)

BOE
NatWest Markets25bp hike with 7-2 vote (dissents for on hold). No numerical QT targets or firm dates this week. One further 25bp hike in Aug22 then on hold thourh Q1-24 (risk of 2 hikes in H1-23).
Pantheon25bp hike in May22 with 1-7-1 split. BOE wait until Aug22 to announce plans to sell gilts at GBP10bln/quarter, starting in Q4. Further 25bp hike in Q3-22 before on hold until end-23.
UniCredit25bp hike this week with Cunliffe preferring unchanged rates. One more hike in this cycle in Aug22 to 1.25%.
Daiwa"The majority" to back 25bp hike this week and announce active gilt sales "for as long as the market is not disorderly." Further 25bp hike in Aug22 then 25bp cut in 2023.
TD Securities25bp hike with 8-1 or 7-2 vote (dissents for no change). QT start date possibly announced in Aug22. Risk of Jun22 or Aug22 hikes but base case no further hike until Feb23.
Barclays25bp hike with scope of a 1-7-1 split. No further hikes. Active QT to begin in 2023 at an initial pace of GBP20-25bln/year (higher if inflation is consistently above target).
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